who will win ukraine or russia

Analysis language

The outcome of the conflict remains uncertain, with several potential paths ranging from continued stalemate to various forms of negotiated or militarily defined resolutions for either side.

Continued Stalemate and Protracted Conflict

The conflict persists without a decisive military breakthrough for either side, characterized by shifting front lines, sustained international support for Ukraine, and Russia's ongoing military campaigns, as suggested by the continuing prisoner exchanges.

Negotiated Settlement with Partial Gains

A diplomatic resolution emerges, leading to a ceasefire and an agreement that involves compromises from both sides regarding territorial control, security, or political status, potentially ending large-scale hostilities without a complete victory for either.

Russia Consolidates Occupied Territories

Russia declares victory by solidifying its control over existing occupied territories and securing strategic land corridors, effectively maintaining its military presence and aiming to legitimize these gains, aligning with Putin's stated intent to win.

Ukraine Sustains Defense and Retains Sovereignty

Ukraine, with ongoing international assistance, successfully defends against further territorial losses and potentially reclaims some strategic areas, reinforcing its sovereign status and integration trajectory, even if full territorial restoration is not immediate.

The provided signals indicate ongoing conflict and diplomatic exchanges, but do not point to a decisive victory for either party, suggesting multiple plausible future scenarios.

Analysis

The probability of a clear, decisive victory by either Ukraine or Russia is assessed at 17.4%. This low probability reflects the current operational stalemate and the lack of definitive signals pointing towards an imminent

Signals & Arguments

Pro

No pro signals

Contra

No contra signals

Uncertainties

Sources (8)

Forecast from 28.04.2026 · bf0e7227-b68a-4edb-967c-56962059c55d